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Image of a futuristic war (Analysis and forecasts of future wars) Essay Example

  • Category:
    Other
  • Document type:
    Research Proposal
  • Level:
    Masters
  • Page:
    2
  • Words:
    1211

Research Proposal

Image ofa futuristicwar (Analysisand forecasts offuture wars)

  1. Abstract

Within the broader perspective of image of a futuristic war, this study critically analyses and forecasts future wars. Within this realm, the proposal incorporates previous wars so as to integrate the dimensions such has taken thus forecasting future war and ultimately predictions and solutions to future wars. To underscore the thesis statement, this proposal recognizes that at all levels of planning; forecasting future wars and subsequent predictions of solutions to such wars need the realm of policy, strategy and operations together. For instance, at the policy level, war forecasting is needed for understanding anticipating the potential existential threats to different countries.

  1. Introduction

As Franklin (1990) notes, thinking about the future war requires careful reflection regarding the course on its past. Conversely, the argument postulated by contemporary scholars such as Azar (1989) notes that history has a suggestion that by its very nature, war has been able to exhibit a number of continuities amid changes. Broadly speaking, these scholars have merely argued about the sense of the trajectory of the wars’ evolution. Using historical perspective on the future, this proposal intends to address a number of fundamental questions. As these questions will be listed below, such will help the proposal shift paradigm of future wars, the nature they will take and thus providing possible solutions. As already been noted, the concept of war forecasting and provision of possible solutions will be considered at different levels within different nations with conceptual overview touching on countries such as United States of America.

  1. Importance of Subject

While this proposal has an objective of forecasting future wars thus providing possible course of the war and solutions, one of the importance of the study is that it will assess the underpinning of defense forecasting which this proposal understand from Frank (2000) perspective that it is a conscious effort that should be matched with capabilities to resources for wars countries have.

Additionally, scholars such as Georg and Friedrich (2003) have failed in their recent studies to illustrate how a nation plans for its war and or defense which are crucial to understanding and predicting the course future wars will take. When this is done the study will provide an impetus in assessing attitudes countries have toward other actors in the international arena thus a leeway of predicting future wars.

Lastly, studies such as Auguste (1997) have shown that future wars will encompass adversaries that range from well-led, well-equipped and well-trained convectional military formations which will be engaged in close fighting to irregular and hybrid forces. Building from this hypothesis, this proposal predicts that there will be both low-end and high-end threat going by Auguste (1997) assertions therefore to provide solutions to such future wars, it will analyse whether or not counter-IED (improvised explosive devices) technologies as already used by militants in Afghanistan and Iraq have any impacts in future.

  1. Purposes of Article

  • Assessment of past, current and future wars within the realm of theoretical and literature reviews

  • Analysing the meaning of these wars vis-à-vis actors participating in it

  • Predictions of these wars and possible solution basing on theoretical and literature reviews

  1. Main question of Article

How have past approaches to speculation on future war influenced the way we think today?

  1. Other questions

How did past futurists frame their arguments in historical terms and what common approaches did they adopt for wars?

How have historical perspectives entered into the current debate about shifting paradigms in strategy and the revolution in military affairs?

Will there be a new relationship between technology and the human and or moral factor in war?

  1. Purpose of Article

  • Predictions of these wars and possible solution basing on theoretical and literature reviews

  1. Application andresults ofthe research

Just like the nature of the study, application and results of the research is multidimensional. To begin with, this study is built on the assertion that it has been difficult to perfectly model future human behaviour when it comes to war therefore this study will provide past wisdom which will be helpful than what critics have had. Result of the study will also enlighten the normal thinking that the passions and rationales that have been moving states/countries to roll the dice of war have been differing from the thinking which arouses insurgents or tribes. Conversely it will be from the result of this study that what Georg and Friedrich (2003) terms as “tug of war” existing between science and history will remain a dynamic element with respect to contemporary thinking regarding future war. Finally, it is through this result of this study that future research will recognise that problems that confronted past wars are no different compared with what leaders face today. As a matter of fact, political and social changes that have reshaped military organisations have been combined with rapid and incremental technological advances in existing weapons to produce disorienting changes in the battlefield.
9.0. Research Methodology: Survey Questionnaire

As can be noted, the research proposal seeks to answer four critical questions with a view to understating what Assessment of past, current and future wars within the realm of theoretical and literature reviews. This proposal has considered 7 months through which data will be collected and analysed. To be in tandem with the research questions, research hypotheses and theoretical framework, the questionnaire will be designed on the basis of existing empirical studies, literatures reviewed and previous studies on similar or related topics.

  1. The mainsteps inthe processandtimingof research

    1. Data Collection

Data collection needs consent from the participant and the reason given why the data should be collected in the first place. Introductory letter will be sent to inform participants on the purpose of the data from them, in this case we deal with operational measures and definitions.

    1. Data Analysis and Interpretational Methods used

Since we intend to interact directly with respondents through the questionnaire, thematic analysis model is going to be adopted to augur well with our quantitative analysis of the set survey questions. As answers from the questionnaire are expected to be divergent, as a model, thematic analysis will seek to find meanings to the comments given thereafter categorizing such comments into understandable format.

    1. Risk Mitigation

This research proposal intends to obtain data from busy business organization therefore it may suffer low or marginal response rates. To mitigate the risk, respondents will feel part of this research and be made aware that the outcome of the research will benefit them.

There will be anonymity of the data by ensuring respondents are not identified by their responses.

    1. Timeline

Duration (In months)

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References

Auguste, C., (1997). Introduction to Positive Philosophy, translated by Frederick Ferre (New York: The Bobbs-Merrill Co. Inc., 1993), 8, 13 and 28.

Azar, G. (1989). The Origins of Military Thought from the Enlightenment to Clausewitz (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1989), 44-49.

Franklin, B., (1990). Main Currents of Western Thought (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1978), 454.

Frank, M., (2000). Modern European Thought (New York: MacMillan Publishing Co. Inc., 1977), 248-49.

Georg, W. and Friedrich, H., (2003). The Philosophy of History, translated by J. Sibree (New York: Dover Publications, 1956), 59.