Data Analysis and Interpretation Essay Example

Data Analysis and Interpretation: Nigeria

Question 1

Estimate the average population (persons) growth rate between 2005 and 2015 in your selected country (note: use the exponential growth rates

P = final population

P ₀ =initial population

r = rate of growth

Initial population (P₀)= 141190

Final population (P) = 181562

Time (t) = 10

181562 = 141190e^r10

Growth rate (r) = 0.0251490692148 × 100 = 2.51490692148%

Population growth rate = 2.51%

Question 2

Estimate the likely total number of people (persons) in 2025, on the basis of the 2015 population and the estimated growth rate in (Q.1)

P = final population

P ₀ =initial population

r = rate of growth

Initial population (P₀)= 181562

Final population (P) =?

Growth rate = 0. 0251

Time (t) = 10

? = 181562e^0.0251*10

181562e^0.0251*10 = 233363.469531

Therefore, likely total number of people (persons) in 2025 in Nigeria = 233, 363

Question 3

Estimate the Crude birth rates (CBR) for 2005 and 2015

Crude birth rates (CBR) = (number of births) / (total population) × 1000

CBR for 2005 = 5,911,300/141,190 × 1000 = 41, 867.696

Crude birth rates (CBR) for 2005 = 41, 868

CBR for 2015 = 6,833,600/ 181,562 × 1000 = 37, 637.8317

Crude birth rates (CBR) for 2015 = 37, 638

Question 4

Estimate the General fertility rates (GFR) for 2005 and 2015

General fertility rates (GFR) = numbers of births in a stated period / number of women aged 15-49 in the same period × 1000

General fertility rates (GFR) 2005 = 5,911,300 / 32,052 × 1000 = 184, 428. 429

General fertility rates (GFR) 2005 = 184, 428

General fertility rates (GFR) 2015 = 6,833,600 / 85,572 × 1000 = 79, 857. 8974

General fertility rates (GFR) 2015 = 79, 858

Question 5

Estimate the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2005 and 2015

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = (The sum of the Age Specific Fertility Rates x The number of years in each age group) / 1000

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2005

			ASBR × 1000
		1,558,600
		1,541,000
		1,027,700

So Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2005 = 80.8 × 5 = 404

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2015

			ASBR × 1000
		1,038,400
		1,727,000
		1,770,200
		1,269,600

So Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2015 = 114 × 5 = 570

Question 6

Estimate the median age of all population in 2005 and 2015

Median age of all population in 2005

(24,985 + 19,793 + 16,925 + 14,782 + 13,033 + 11,130 + 8,972 + 7,240 + 5,878 + 4,718 + 3,889 + 3,242 + (2,528 + 1,821 + 1195 + 670 + 289 + 100) ÷ 2 = 141,190 ÷ 2 = 70,595

The 70,595^th
item on the list of cumulative is 76,485

76,485^th person is between the ages of 15-19

Therefore, median age for the population in 2005 is 15-19

Median age of all population in 2015

(29,639 + 25,614 + 22,831 + 19,003 + 16,185 + 13,949 + 12,034 + 10,071 + 7,971 + 6,359 + 5,105 + 4,004 + 3,157+ 2,427 + 1,651 + 955 + 439 + 168) ÷ 2 = 181,562 ÷ 2 = 90,781

90,781^th
is between the ages of 15-19

Therefore, median age for the population in 2015 is 15-19

Question 7

Estimate the dependency ratio of all population in 2005 and 2015

Dependency ratio = (Number of dependents / population: ages 15-64)x 100

Dependency ratio 2005 = (24,985 + 19,793 + 16,925 + 1,821 + 1195 + 670 + 289 + 100) ÷ 75,412) x 100 = (65,778 ÷ 75,412) x 100 = 87.22%

Dependency ratio 2005 = 87.22%

Dependency ratio 2015 = (29,639 + 25,614 + 22,831 + 2,427 + 1,651 + 955 + 439 + 168) ÷ 75,412) x 100 = (83,724 ÷ 97,838) x 100 = 85.57

Dependency ratio 2015 = 85.57%

Question 8

Estimate the sex ratio of population aged 65 and over in 2005 and 2015

Sex ratio = (number of males ÷ number of females) x 100

Sex ratio in 2005 = (1,985 ÷ 2,090) x 100 = 95

Sex ratio in 2015 = (5,640 ÷ 2,954) x 100 = 91

Question 9

Discuss and comment on the changes in demographic characteristics of your selected country between 2005 and 2015

Birthrate in Nigeria is declining. For instance, in 2005 crude birth rates was 41, 868 while crude birth rates (CBR) for 2015 was 37, 638. Birthrate has been a dominant factor in determining the rate of population growth in Nigeria. The rate of population growth is relatively slow and birth rate has played a big role in influencing population growth in Nigeria. The patterns of change in fertility indicate decline in fertility rate and this has also contributed to the slow population growth. For example, the general fertility rates in 2005 was 184,428 while in 2015 it was 79,858 which indicates a very high decrease of approximately 50% decline in fertility rate between 2005 and 2015. Ageing population is relatively low in Nigeria. The number of people aged 64 years and above in 2005 was 4075 where the total population was 141,190. This means that the in 2005 the percentage of people over 64 years was 2.9%. On the other hand, in 2015 the total number of people aged 64 years and above was 5640 in a total population of 181,562. The percentage of people aged 64 years and above in 2015 was 3.1%. Evidently, there is slowdown in growth of ageing population in Nigeria.

Question 10

Features of the Demographic Transition and its components (birth and death rates) and impact on population growth and age distribution of the world since 1950 in both developed and developing countries

. This shows that the developed world is typified by a higher but stable population size while the developing world is typified by a higher, but unstable population size since 1950. This explains the progressive population growth in both developed and developing worlds since 1950.Bongaarts, 2009). On the other hand, in developing world demographic transition has been typified by increased population characterized by high number of births and similarly high number of deaths (Ehrlich & Erhlich, 2010). This can be attributed to enlightened and well informed women in the developed world giving birth to few numbers of children due to availability of family planning techniques as well as availability of good health care and high standard of living which reduced the number of deaths Bongaarts, 2009)Demographic transition worldwide since 1950 has been typified by gradual population size. In developed world, the birth and death rates are comparatively both low (

References

Bongaarts J, 2009, Human population growth and the demographic transition, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, 364(1532): 2985–2990.

Ehrlich P & Erhlich A, 2010, The Population Explosion, New York: Simon and Schuster.